J.P.摩根-解密加密货币展望:技术,应用和挑战-2018.2.9-71页

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摩根 解密 加密 货币 展望 技术 应用 挑战 2018.2
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Global Research 09 February 2018 J.P. Morgan Perspectives Decrypting Cryptocurrencies: Technology, Applications and Challenges Global Research See page69 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aw are that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com Long-term Strategy Jan Loeys AC jan.loeys@jpmorgan.com (1-212) 834-5874 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Global Head of Research Joyce Chang (1-212) 834-4203 joyce.chang@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC J.P. Morgan Perspectives Decrypting Cryptocurrencies: Technology, Applications and Challenges Completed 09 Feb 2018 03:36 PM EST Disseminated 09 Feb 2018 03:37 PM EST This document is being provided for the exclusive use of TATEO JAGER. {[{^K^OY*TKQO\*^K^OY8TKQO\JWON^\YXSM8MYW*;75% reduction in dispute resolution time and number of disputes. Tien-tsin Huang, CFAAC tien-tsin.huang@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Connor AllenAC connor.allen@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC This document is being provided for the exclusive use of TATEO JAGER. {[{^K^OY*TKQO\*^K^OY8TKQO\JWON^\YXSM8MYW*;9:9:;B}]} 55 Global Equity Research J.P. Morgan Perspectives 09 February 2018 Katherine Lei (852) 2800-8552 katherine.lei@jpmorgan.com George Cai (852) 2800-8557 george.cai@jpmorgan.com Grace Guan (852) 2800-8511 Grace.X.Guan@jpmorgan.com Alex Yao (852) 2800-8535 alex.yao@jpmorgan.com Cryptos in China  China’s central bank has made it clear that CC areonly a virtual commodity instead of legal tender  All financial services related to CC are banned in China  Neitherof China’s large two online payment platforms (i.e. Ant Financial and Tencent) have deployed Blockchain technology in their core payment solution China has a clear stance on CC: a virtual commodity, not money PBOC has made it clear that it views cryptocurrencies (CC) as only a virtual commodity rather than legal tender. This was highlighted in an announcement (Notice on Risk Prevention related to Bitcoin) by PBOC (China’s Central Bank) back in December 2013. The Notice was mainly regarding regulation on Bitcoin, but in our view, what PBOC actually referred to was not only limited to Bitcoin, but referred to all CC. Two key points from the Notice:  The nature of CC: Bitcoin is not a currency, and thus not a legal tender. Instead, it is a form of virtual commodity transacted on an internet platform.  Financial services related to CC are banned: all financial institutions (banks, trust, insurance companies, asset managers, etc.) and payment providers, are forbidden to provide services for or products denominated in Bitcoin. This ban includes but is not limited to financial services such as market making, guarantee, insurance, client registration, transaction, settlement and custodian services, etc. And financial institutionsare not allowed to accept Bitcoin as a means of payment and settlement. Any issuance of financial products, such as trust or funds with Bitcoin as underlying investments, is strictly prohibited. With such clear stance, we believe financial institutions' involvement in CCs will be very limited.Nonetheless, the development of CCs has been rapid raising the risk that regulators could easily find themselves behind the curve. For example, instead of directly providing financial services, or issuing products denominated in CC, money finds its way, indirectly, to fund investors of ICO. Intensifying regulatory tightening on CC since 2017 CC has gained momentum in China in recent years; a Bloomberg report in December 2017 claimed that ~58% of the world's large CC mining pools were located in China, followed by the US at 16%. And Xinhua news reported that from Jan to July 2017, ICO completed in China raised the equivalent of RMB2.6bn, though the amount is still small (vs RMB141bn raised from IPOs in the equities market in China over the same period of time), but the rapid growth (Figure 28and Figure 29) has certainly alerted regulators, and entailed a round of regulatory tightening. Please see Table 10 below for details on regulatory actions taken by the Chinese government on CC. Measures mainly involved rising inspection on CC exchange or trading platforms in and banning of ICOs.  Intensifying onsite inspection of major CC trading platforms in Januaryto February2017, resulting in closure of several of such platforms (according to the platforms' websites). The inspections focused on spotting any business operations that are out-of- scope, identifying any unlicensed business practices (including financing, payment and exchange), any market manipulation, and any financial security risks. Any major deviating and non-compliantactivities would lead to forced platform shutdowns. Note that CC trading denominated in RMB plummeted from more than 90% of transaction volume in Jan 2017 to less than 20% in March 2017.  Ban on ICOs in September 2017: In addition to banning ICO and restricting CC trading activities, PBOC reiterated the stance that CC is not legal currency and FIs are banned from providing services to related activities. This time, PBOC use CC instead of Bitcoin in the regulatory announcement, eliminating any potential room for regulatory arbitrage. PBOC is studying issuance of virtual currency According to a news report (South China Morning Post, Nov 5, 2017), PBOC is conducting research on the potentialissueof the country’s own sovereign digital currency. However, we should not confuse this with the concept of government-backed CC. One key difference between CCsand digital currencies is the flexibility on supply of the currency, and thus if CC gainsthe status of legal tender, this may lower central bank’s ability to adjust its monetary policy, in our view. As such, we This document is being provided for the exclusive use of TATEO JAGER. {[{^K^OY*TKQO\*^K^OY8TKQO\JWON^\YXSM8MYW*;9:9:;B}]} 56 Global Equity Research J.P. Morgan Perspectives 09 February 2018 Katherine Lei (852) 2800-8552 katherine.lei@jpmorgan.com George Cai (852) 2800-8557 george.cai@jpmorgan.com Grace Guan (852) 2800-8511 Grace.X.Guan@jpmorgan.com Alex Yao (852) 2800-8535 alex.yao@jpmorgan.com believe PBOC’s research is on issuance of digital currency instead of China's sovereign CC. To sum up, we believe PBOC is likely to be more open to the idea of digital currency, but to remain vigilant on CC. Bitcoin in China: leading in mining capability and forming a complete value chain Bitcoin is banned in China as a currency. Nonetheless, China leads in global Bitcoin mining capability and has approximately 3/4 of global Bitcoin mining pools, according to a joint report prepared by Tsinghua University, Sina Tech and Bitcoin transaction platform Huobi. China was also leading in Bitcoin transaction volume and accounted for some 80% of global Bitcoin transactions before PBOC banned Bitcoin trading in China in September 2017. In addition to mining and trading, the industry has formed a complete value chain including Bitcoin storage and related media platforms. Figure28: Bitcoin value chain and representative companies in China Source: J.P. Morgan Flaws in Bitcoin as currency Compared to real currencies, we don’t think Bitcoin will have a material impact on current payment systems in China or become a widely used official currency because:  From a regulatoryperspective, Bitcoin's features and characteristics such as decentralization, anonymity, and bypassing existing regulation system could cause severe regulatory issues, such as increasedmoney laundering, etc.  From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s core Blockchain technology is still at an early stage and can't handle large transaction volumes. For instance, the daily transaction volume for large Bitcoin networks is approximately 200k versus 100 million for large commercial banksin China. Current Blockchain technology is far from mature, and it sometimes takes several hours or even a day to confirm a Bitcoin transaction when there is network congestion.  From a currency value perspective, there’s no benchmark to determine the value of Bitcoin, and its daily price volatility can be as high as 40%. Due to this high uncertainty in value and price, it’s hard to use Bitcoin in daily transactions.  From a liquidity perspective, the total supply of Bitcoin is set to be 21mn globally, while approximately 16.5mn Bitcoin have been mined. The limitation of supply may cause deflation effect on Bitcoin and affect liquidity if it’s used as currency. Applications of Blockchain technology by major China online payment players China’s online payment market is dominated by Ant Financial and Tencent with the two taking c90% of the market share collectively. Neither Ant Financial nor Tencent have deployed Blockchain technology in their core payment technologies due to regulation and technical issues discussed above. Although Blockchain is not applied to their core payment business, we note both companies are actively exploring this technology and have initiated trial application in other use case. As Blockchain technology is still at an early stage, these trials are mostly in relatively small-scale and low-frequency use cases.  Ant Financialapplies Blockchain in a ‘use case’ of public welfare donation. It allows donators to track progress of their donation, as well as the specific money flow. Ant is also exploringto apply Blockchain in its cloud business.  Tencenthas incorporated Blockchain technology into its financial cloud service and named this solution as BaaS (Blockchain as a Service). It can be used in scenarios such as mutual insurance, cross-border auditand supply chain finance, etc. Mining • Bitmain • AntPool Trading • OKCoin • Huobi • BTCC Storage • BitherWallet • Kuaiqianbao Media • Cybtc.com • 8btc This document is being provided for the exclusive use of TATEO JAGER. {[{^K^OY*TKQO\*^K^OY8TKQO\JWON^\YXSM8MYW*;9:9:;B}]} 57 Global Equity Research J.P. Morgan Perspectives 09 February 2018 Katherine Lei (852) 2800-8552 katherine.lei@jpmorgan.com George Cai (852) 2800-8557 george.cai@jpmorgan.com Grace Guan (852) 2800-8511 Grace.X.Guan@jpmorgan.com Alex Yao (852) 2800-8535 alex.yao@jpmorgan.com Potential impact of Blockchain technology on China online payment market Blockchain, as the underlying technology of Bitcoin potentially, can be a disruptive technologyfor payment industry. A purely Blockchain backed network doesn’t requirea centralized clearance house for payment settlement, therefore theoretically notransaction fee can be generated from such a network. If over time Blockchain technology becomes mature and is allowed to be used as a key infrastructure for online payment network, the industry incumbents such as Ant Financial and Tencent mayneed to build new monetization models (e.g., cloud service or other technology services to support the Blockchain network) for online payment business. Figure 29: A purely Blockchain backed online payment system will bypass centralized clearance house and regulation body Source: J.P. Morgan Figure 30: Number of ICO projects completed in China Source: Xinhua, J.P. Morgan estimates Figure 31: Amount of ICO raised and number of participants (2017 Mar-Jun) Source: Xinhua, J.P. Morgan estimates Figure 32: Transactions in RMB plummeted when China tightened on CC transaction platforms Source: Global Cryptocurrency Benchmarking study by Visa Regulator Both cenctralized payment platform and regulator will be bypassed if a payment is settled by blockchain network Online payment platforms PayeePayer Current online payment flow Payment flow under blockchain network 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Before 2017 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Number of ICO projects copmleted in China 0 15 30 45 60 75 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Amount of ICO raised (Rmb bn) Number of participants (RHS) Amount of ICO raised (Rmb bn) No of participants ('000) This document is being provided for the exclusive use of TATEO JAGER. {[{^K^OY*TKQO\*^K^OY8TKQO\JWON^\YXSM8MYW*;9:9:;B}]} 58 Global Equity Research J.P. Morgan Perspectives 09 February 2018 Katherine Lei (852) 2800-8552 katherine.lei@jpmorgan.com George Cai (852) 2800-8557 george.cai@jpmorgan.com Grace Guan (852) 2800-8511 Grace.X.Guan@jpmorgan.com Alex Yao (852) 2800-8535 alex.yao@jpmorgan.com Table 10: Summary of regulatory changes on cryptocurrency Date Rules Details Feb 4, 18 Prohibit online trading of virtual currencies According to local media (Yicai), PBOC will take further measures to tighten CC, and prohibit trading of virtual currency on overseas and domestic platforms. Jan 17, 18 Ban on payment institutions providing services to CC transactions According to local news (Sina), PBOC released the notice to payment institutions, forbidding them to provide payment services to cryptocurrency transactions. The notice required the institutions to conduct self-inspections, improve daily supervision and report the inspection status before Jan 20, 2018. Sept 4, 17 Ban on initial coin offerings (ICOs) The Chinese regulatory entities (PBOC, Office of Central Leading Group for Cyberspace Affairs, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, State Administration for Industry 9:9:;B}]} 59 Global Commodities Research J.P. Morgan Perspectives 09 February 2018 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 gregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.com Examining Bitcoin’s cost structure  Prices of commodities and economic goods are ultimately driven by their cost of production.  This is to some extent also true for Bitcoin, but because by design its supply is fixed, the concept of marginal cost support does not really apply here  Rather,the cost level of the lowest-cost producer is likely a more important driver  We believe the lowest cost producer currently is likely a Chinese miner with cheap access to power and overall mining costs around $3,200 per Bitcoin Cryptocurrencies have much in common with commodities: they are both yield-less, andhave associated tangible, derivable costs of production, a finite supply and an increasingly diminishing production yield. In fact, cryptocurrency industry lingo is borrowed straight from the commodities world: Bitcoins are mined by miners using rigs. Whileindustrial and precious metals mining is an energy-intensive process, requiring specialized tools and human labor to drill, transport, crush, and process ore, mining bitcoins requires purchasing and powering computers custom-designed to run the hash functions used to win blocks of newly minted Bitcoins. Cost structureof Bitcoinmining As mentioned above, the largest variable cost for Bitcoin mining is energy, not only to power the computers but also to cool them if no natural alternative (cold w
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